Sunday, October 27, 2013

PM2.5 Forecast for Beijing - Monday, October 28, 2013

If you just looked at the graph for today's forecast, you could assume that we have no idea what is going to happen with Monday's air quality.  But the story behind the graph is that the weather forecasts for Monday do not agree.  So we are looking at two possible scenarios.  In Scenario #1, we will see PM2.5 levels stable or slightly dropping in the early morning, then dropping more quickly between sunrise and noon.  From there we would see mostly stable air quality through the afternoon at Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or the low end of the Unhealthy range.  But in Scenario #2, we would see PM2.5 levels stay at or near the Hazardous range all day with a slight decrease around noon and another increase in the afternoon/evening.  The weather forecast for Scenario #1 has a better track record for being correct over the last few weeks, so if we have to pick, we think Scenario #1 is the more likely of the two. 

UPDATE - Our prediction with overlay of actual readings:

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